Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Hoggey1 Weighs in on Chapter 7

Posted Today, 07:21 AM
I don't want to sound like Doubting Thomas here, but I don't believe Iraq is out from under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter. In fact the most recent statement from the United Nations Security Council (June 30, 2011) essentially says that Iraq remains under Chapter VII. While the language is somewhat vague, the statement - "continued compliance with relevant (Ch 7) resolutions" - very strongly implies that Iraq is still under Chapter VII.

The members of the Security Council underscored the importance of Iraq’s continued compliance with relevant resolutions, including paragraph 21 of resolution 1483 (2003) and resolution 1956 (2010).

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but it seems clear that Iraq hasn't fulfilled all of the requirements necessary for exit from Chapter VII. But this is a very important topic, so I'll let you be the judge. Personally I don't believe they're out of Chapter 7 and there appears to be a considerable amount of evidence to that effect. For those interested in the subject, brace yourself because this will be a very long post. Sorry bout that, but this is an important subject. Very! I've included a considerable amount of evidentiary information taken from the UNSC (mostly) but also from other soures. It seems that two of the main issues remaining to be resolved involve the formation of Iraq's government (something Juni and I've said for a long time and in many different posts and thread topics). The other issue apparently unresolved involves Kuwait. I'm not as well versed in that area though I believe it's fairly obvious that's an outstanding issue. IMO, the most important issue from the standpoint of the UNSC and the IMF continues to be the formation of the goverment.

The specific requirment listed under UN Res 1483 (May 2003), paragraphs 21 &22 states that Iraq is to form an "internationally recognized representative government." Resolutions 1500 (August 2003) and 1511 (October 2003) reiterate and clarify that requirement. Then on December 15, 2010, the UNSC added to and further defined the terms originally set forth in Resolution 1483 by the statement: "The Security Council supports the inclusive political process and power-sharing agreement reached by Iraq’s leaders to form a representative national partnership government..." So according to the UN's terms, Iraq has to form an internationally recognized representative government and do so according to the terms set forth by the Erbil/Power-Sharing Agreement reached by Iraq's leaders. Unfortunately, the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Iraq has not met this requirement.

First let's take a look at comments made in a report made by the SIGIR - Special Inspector General Iraq Reconstruction

http://www.sigir.mil.../April2011.html

I'll quote:

"The Government of Iraq continued to take shape as more members of Iraq's Council of Ministers were named. But as of April 21, 2011, 3 positions in the 42 person cabinet remained in the hands of a caretaker "acting" ministers, including the crucial security portfolios of Defense and Interior. The posts awaiting permanent occupents include:

1) Minister of Defense
2) Minister of Interior
3) Minister for Naitonal Security

Until the ministerial positions are filled it would be premature to declare an end to the government formation..."

And the global authorities (e.g. UNSC, USA) have told Iraq's political leaders to finish forming their government and according to terms originally defined in Resolution 1483 ("internationally recognized representative government) and then further defined by the terms set forth in the Erbil/Power-Sharing Agreement. Note: this report/post does not include reference to all reports, articles and/or quotes available in support - there is not enough room for all the references.

From UNSC Res 1483

Determining that the situation in Iraq, although improved, continues to
constitute a threat to international peace and security,


Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations,

1. Appeals to Member States and concerned organizations to assist the
people of Iraq in their efforts to reform their institutions and rebuild their country,
and to contribute to conditions of stability and security in Iraq in accordance with
this resolution;


Also from 1483

5. Calls upon all concerned to comply fully with their obligations under
international law including in particular the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the
Hague Regulations of 1907;

6. Calls upon the Authority and relevant organizations and individuals to
continue efforts to locate, identify, and repatriate all Kuwaiti and Third-State
Nationals or the remains of those present in Iraq on or after 2 August 1990, as well
as the Kuwaiti archives, that the previous Iraqi regime failed to undertake, and, in
this regard, directs the High-Level Coordinator, in consultation with the 3S/RES/1483 (2003)
International Committee of the Red Cross and the Tripartite Commission and with
the appropriate support of the people of Iraq and in coordination with the Authority,
to take steps to fulfil his mandate with respect to the fate of Kuwaiti and Third-State
National missing persons and property;


© working intensively with the Authority, the people of Iraq, and others
concerned to advance efforts to restore and establish national and local institutions
for representative governance, including by working together to facilitate a process
leading to an internationally recognized, representative government of Iraq;


9. Supports the formation, by the people of Iraq with the help of the
Authority and working with the Special Representative, of an Iraqi interim
administration as a transitional administration run by Iraqis, until an internationally
4 S/RES/1483 (2003) recognized, representative government is established by the people of Iraq and
assumes the responsibilities of the Authority;


end excerpt 1483

I'm no expert when it comes to the United Nations' Charter or Resolutions, but in reading through the UN's recent, and I believe latest(?) announcements on Iraq, it seems fairly clear that Iraq is not completely out of Chapter VII. And it seems reasonable that the UN might release Iraq gradually and over a period of time. The point being to acknowledge and reward progress but at the same time remind Iraq that there's still some unfinished business. And I believe the most important unfinished business remaining for Iraq to accomplish is to finish forming their government, and according to the terms of the "power-sharing agreement (Erbil). Furthermore, it looks like Iraq still has unfinished business with Kuwait. In reading through the documents released by the global monetary authorities, e.g. UNSC, USA, IMF there seems an overwhelming amount of evidence to suggest Iraq remains under Chapter VII.

For example:

Quote (Dec 15, 2010):

Also by the statement, the Council supported the inclusive political process and power-sharing agreement reached by Iraq’s leaders, following the parliamentary election of 7 March 2010. It encouraged Iraqi leaders “to continue to pursue a federal, democratic, pluralistic and unified Iraq based on the rule of law and respect for human rights”.

and

With 10 Council members represented at the ministerial level or above, and with Iraq’s Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, representing his country, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon opened the morning’s discussion, saying: “This meeting is a milestone for Iraq. Today we recognize how far the country has come in key aspects of its journey to normalize its status in the community of Nations.” He urged Iraqi leaders to follow through on their power-sharing agreements, to continue making domestic progress and to normalize its international relations, pledging continued United Nations support in all those areas

and

“The Security Council supports the inclusive political process and power-sharing agreement reached by Iraq’s leaders to form a representative national partnership government that reflects the will of the Iraqi people as displayed by the parliamentary election of 7 March 2010. We encourage its leaders to continue to pursue a federal, democratic, pluralistic and unified Iraq based on the rule of law and respect for human rights.

end

And the statements: "the Council lifted restrictions relating to..." and, "The Council also terminated..." strongly imply that not all sanctions were lifted.

You can read some of the other statements acknowledging the requirement to for an internationally recognized representative government according to the terms set forth in the Power-Sharing Agreements (Erbil). (Juni and I've mentioned this requirement in several different posts).

= = =

Then UNSC relased a statement on April 8, 2011 addressing Iraq's ongoing difficulty in forming its government and in honorhing the Power Sharing agreement and the ongoing difficulties fulfilling the terms of Chapter VII regarding Kuwait.

http://www.un.org/Ne...sc10220.doc.htm

Iraq and Kuwait had made progress in resolving outstanding issues, he said. On 12 January, the Prime Ministers of both countries met in Baghdad for the first time since 1991. One month later, they met in Kuwait. Mr. Melkert expressed confidence that the expected reaffirmation of land and maritime boundaries pursuant to Council resolution 833 (1993) by Iraq’s Government was within reach.

Outlining a number of visits from high-level Government officials from countries in the region and beyond, he underscored the work of Iraqi officials to promote bilateral relations at both regional and international levels, particularly highlighting an agreement to activate the work of joint Iraqi-Kuwaiti committees and to convene a meeting of the Iraq-Kuwait Joint Ministerial Committee. The latter, which was headed by the Foreign Ministers of the two countries and was intended to resolve all outstanding issues between them, had held its first meeting in Kuwait on 27 and 28 March

= =

The Council had before it the Second report of the Secretary-General pursuant to paragraph 6 of resolution 1936 (2010) (document S/2011/213) covering the period from 26 November 2010 to 31 March 2011. In the report, the Secretary-General notes that the new Government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was endorsed by the Iraqi Council of Representatives on 31 December 2010. Formed on the basis of a power-sharing agreement between Iraq’s main political blocs and hailed as a “national partnership Government”, it ended the nine-month political stalemate that followed national elections on 7 March 2010.

In the report, the Secretary-General says the formation of the new Government should enable Iraqi leaders to begin to tackle the major political, social and economic challenges facing the country. However, several aspects of the power-sharing agreement have yet to be addressed.


Calling the adoption of Security Council resolutions 1956 (2010), 1957 (2010), and 1958 (2010) on 15 December 2010 an important milestone in Iraq’s exit from Chapter VII obligations, the Secretary-General says the main outstanding obligation relates to the issues of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and property, confirmation of the Iraqi Government’s willingness to continue the Iraq–Kuwait boundary maintenance project and actions to relocate farmers from the border area.

His Special Representative continues to engage relevant political figures and parties to facilitate negotiations on outstanding issues related to the Government formation process, while UNAMI continues to work with the Government and other Iraqi interlocutors to facilitate political dialogue on Iraq’s disputed territories, states the report. Among other activities, the Mission was also supporting the Independent High Electoral Commission in maintaining operational readiness.

The formation of the new Government also allowed the Mission and the United Nations country team to step up their engagement with their official counterparts in the areas of humanitarian assistance, reconstruction and development, says the report. The reform of the public distribution system and the overall social safety net remain key agenda items for the Government, while water also remains a critical issue, with drought response and transboundary water resource management among the Government’s priorities.


Commending the decision to form a joint bilateral committee between Iraq and Kuwait to address issues of mutual concern between the two countries, he reiterates his call to Iraq to reaffirm its commitment to Security Council resolution 833 (1993) with respect to its land and maritime boundary with Kuwait and to take urgent steps to resume border maintenance work

In his observations, the Secretary-General says further steps should be taken to complete the government formation process, including appointments to key security posts. He calls for the establishment of the National Council for Strategic Policies, as agreed in the power-sharing accord. The recent demonstrations and ensuing violence show that Iraq was not immune to the wave of civil unrest affecting the region and underscore the urgent need to address the poor state of public services, high unemployment rates and the perceived failure to tackle corruption.


UN Secretary General Quoted: "Finish forming the Government."

http://news.xinhuane.../c_13814527.htm


UNITED NATIONS, April 5 (Xinhua) -- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki- moon on Tuesday called on Iraqi leaders to finish the formation of their new government at an early date so that it can press ahead with crucial tasks, including boosting stability and tackling social and economic challenges in the Middle East country.

Further steps need to be taken to complete the government formation process as soon as possible, including appointments to key security posts, despite the establishment of a "national partnership government" in Iraq in December 2010, Ban said in his latest report to the UN Security Council on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). The report was released here Tuesday.


The "national partnership government," led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, ended the nine-month political stalemate that followed elections held in March.

"The transition from one elected government to another was an historic accomplishment and brought an end to months of political uncertainty," Ban said.

"The early finalization of the Government formation process will enable Iraq's leadership to take the measures required to address the legitimate concerns of the Iraqi people," he said. "As unfolding events have shown over the past few weeks, Iraq is not immune to the wave of civil unrest that has affected other parts of the region."




Resolution 1511

http://daccess-dds-n...pdf?OpenElement

Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations,

1. Reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq, and
underscores, in that context, the temporary nature of the exercise by the Coalition
Provisional Authority (Authority) of the specific responsibilities, authorities, and
obligations under applicable international law recognized and set forth in resolution
1483 (2003), which will cease when an internationally recognized, representative
government
 established by the people of Iraq is sworn in and assumes the
responsibilities of the Authority, inter alia through steps envisaged in paragraphs 4
through 7 and 10 below;



30 June 2011
Security Council
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York

Security Council Statement on Development Fund for Iraq

The following Security Council press statement was issued today by Council President Alfred Moungara Moussotsi (Gabon):


The members of the Security Council welcomed the Government of Iraq’s assumption of full autonomy over the proceeds of the Development Fund for Iraq as of 1 July 2011.

The members of the Security Council welcomed the Government of Iraq’s establishment of a successor arrangement for the transition of the Development Fund for Iraq, consistent with resolution 1956 (2010).

The members of the Security Council noted that, in this regard, oversight of the full proceeds from the Development Fund for Iraq has been transferred from the International Advisory and Monitoring Board to the Government of Iraq’s Committee of Financial Experts, which will exercise authority, in accordance with its terms of reference approved by Iraq’s Council of Ministers.

The members of the Security Council reiterated their welcome of the ongoing efforts and commitment by the Government of Iraq to ensure that oil revenue is used in the interests of the Iraqi people, and to ensure that transition arrangements remain consistent with the Constitution and with international best practices in respect of transparency, accountability and integrity.

The members of the Security Council underscored the importance of Iraq’s continued compliance with relevant resolutions, including paragraph 21 of resolution 1483 (2003) and resolution 1956 (2010).


* *** *

end


Paragraph 21 UN Resolution 1483

21. Decides further that 5 per cent of the proceeds referred to in paragraph
20 above shall be deposited into the Compensation Fund established in accordance
with resolution 687 (1991) and subsequent relevant resolutions and that, unless an
internationally recognized, representative government of Iraq and the Governing
Council of the United Nations Compensation Commission, in the exercise of its
authority over methods of ensuring that payments are made into the Compensation
Fund, decide otherwise, this requirement shall be binding on a properly constituted,
internationally recognized, representative government of Iraq and any successor
thereto;

22. Noting the relevance of the establishment of an internationally
recognized, representative government of Iraq and



15 December 2010

Security Council Takes Action to End Iraq Sanctions, Terminate Oil-For-Food

Programme as Members Recognize ‘Major Changes’ Since 1990

This is a long document so I will not copy in full. Instead, I'll show relevant excerpts. Read and decide for yourself.

http://www.un.org/Ne...sc10118.doc.htm

Quote:

GÉRARD ARAUD (France) welcomed the progress made on the political, economical and security levels since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, saying that recent developments gave hope for a complete normalization of the situation. It was to be hoped that the 11 November interim agreements would soon bear fruit and that the Iraqi leadership’s will to overcome differences would prevail. France had decided to engage politically with that leadership through high-level visits, among other things. It provided firm support on the ground through bilateral cooperation in defence, agriculture, environment and culture, he said, noting that his country supported Iraq’s legitimate request to regain the international status it had enjoyed before 1990.

Noting that the Council had closed three sets of Chapter VII measures today, he said that lifting non-proliferation restrictions would allow Iraq to have access to previously banned technology. He welcomed the fact that Iraq had full sovereignty over oil profits. While unable to support today’s text in that



According to the statement, the Council lifted restrictions relating to weapons of mass destruction and civilian nuclear activities in recognition of Iraq’s progress in supporting the international non-proliferation regime and other international instruments, its commitment to take further such steps and its provisional application of the Additional Protocol to the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), pending its ratification.

Adopted unanimously, resolution 1957 (2010) terminated measures imposed under resolutions 687 (1991) and 707 (1991), by which Iraq was requested to destroy all weapons of mass destruction and long-range ballistic missiles, and not to acquire any nuclear weapons.

The Council also terminated the residual activities of the oil-for-food programme, which had previously allowed Iraq to purchase humanitarian supplies during the sanctions regime, in recognition of the closing out of remaining contracts entered into by the programme.

In its statement today, the Council welcomed the progress made by the Governments of Iraq and Kuwait towards the resolution of outstanding issues between them, and encouraged further cooperation. It also called on Iraq to quickly fulfil its remaining obligations under the relevant Chapter VII resolutions.


Also by the statement, the Council supported the inclusive political process and power-sharing agreement reached by Iraq’s leaders, following the parliamentary election of 7 March 2010. It encouraged Iraqi leaders “to continue to pursue a federal, democratic, pluralistic and unified Iraq based on the rule of law and respect for human rights”.


= = = =


United Nations S/RES/1500 (2003)
Security Council Distr.: General
14 August 2003
03-46778 (E)
*0346778*

Resolution 1500 (2003)

Adopted by the Security Council at its 4808th meeting,
on 14 August 2003

The Security Council,

Recalling all its previous relevant resolutions, in particular resolution
1483 (2003) of 22 May 2003,

Reaffirming the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq,
Reaffirming also the vital role for the United Nations in Iraq which was set out
in relevant paragraphs of resolution 1483 (2003),
Having considered the report of the Secretary-General of 15 July 2003
(S/2003/715),

1. Welcomes the establishment of the broadly representative Governing
Council of Iraq on 13 July 2003, as an important step towards the formation by the
people of Iraq of an internationally recognized, representative government that will
exercise the sovereignty of Iraq;


2. Decides to establish the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq to
support the Secretary-General in the fulfilment of his mandate under resolution 1483
in accordance with the structure and responsibilities set out in his report of 15 July
2003, for an initial period of twelve months;

3. Decides to remain seized of this matter.

end



Kuwait hands back remains of Iraq gulf war dead

04/07/2011 14:53
Basra, July 4 (AKnews) – Kuwait returned the remains of 32 soldiers killed during the 1991 gulf war to Iraq today, the Ministry of Human Rights in South Iraq said.

"The handover ceremony took place today amid a solemn ceremony organized by the Iraqi armed forces on the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border at Safwan crossing, west of Basra city," Said Mahdi al-Tamimi, head of the office.

Iraqi and Kuwaiti officials were present.

Most of the soldiers will now be given a fitting burial. However, the identity of some has not yet been discerned.

“A large number of the remains are unidentified” said al-Tamimi, “Therefore, they have to transferred to Baghdad’s forensic department.”

These 32 bodies brought the number of soldiers remains recovered from Kuwait since 2006 to 212.

In 1991, Saddam Hussein’s army marched into Kuwait following territorial disputes which led the international community to take action in a war that forced the Iraqi army out of Kuwait. Thousands of Iraqi troops were killed in the US-led coalition attacks with many hundreds of bodies not being returned to Iraq.

Kuwait and Iraq’s relations remain strained 20 years after the conflict, with disputes over the border, reparation payments and oil fields that straddle the border. However, recent years have seen some improvement, with concessions, such as the one made by Kuwait today, made by both sides.

end


Financial Observation Office has details of US$17.5 billions (B), lost from Iraq, Parliament Speaker says
6/30/2011 4:42 PM


BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraq’s Parliament Speaker, Usama al-Nujeify, has said on Thursday that the Chairman of the Iraqi government’s Financial Observation Office had details of funds lost from Iraq’s Development Fund, pointing out that the American side had spoken about US$6 billions, “but the real figure is US$17.5 billions (B).”

“The Chairman of Iraq’s Financial Office has details about the way Iraqi money was lost from Iraq’s Development Fund, as well as the U.S.
Inspector-General for Iraq’s Development, who visited me one month ago, but he spoke about US$6 billions, but the real figure we have now is US$17.5 billions (B),” Nujeify told a news conference in Baghdad on Thursday.

“I spoke with the U.S.
Vice-President and the U.S.
Secretary of State, who promised to support the investigation to discover those involved in the issue, as well as taking necessary measures to restore trust in dealing with Iraq’s funds,” he said.

Nujeify stressed that “the said issue is part of a clear Iraqi demand, that began by the Parliament and the government, followed by the formation of a follow-up committee, and I in person, as well as the Parliament’s Integrity Committee shall follow up the issue.”


SKH (IT)



Further reference & suggested reading:

http://www.uncc.ch/r...tio/res1483.pdf

http://www.aknews.co...knews/4/250096/

http://www.aknews.co...knews/8/249399/

http://www.aknews.co...knews/8/249041/

http://www.aknews.co...knews/8/248085/

DFI
http://www.aknews.co...knews/8/247075/



Chapter 7

http://www.foxnews.c...a-analysts-say/

UN Secretary Gen to Iraq "Finish Forming Government"

http://news.xinhuane.../c_13814527.htm



PS: I don't want to be a total downer, so let me leave you with a positive suggestion.

We all need to believe that significant progress has been, and indeed is still being made in accomplishing our goal for the dinar to be revalued with an international exchange rate (IMF Article VIII). IMO, significant progress has been made toward that end. Honestly I don't believe Iraq is ready to revalue under the terms of an Article VIII Agreement. But I do believe it's possible for an "in-country" RV to occur while Iraq remains under the current Article XIV Agreement with the IMF.Unfortunately the dinar would not be given an international rate of exchange while under an Article XIV arrangement. However it's possible that Iraq could arrange a special provision to cash in (foreign) investors holding dinars outside of Iraq. I don't know of anything to suggest this will occur but I suppose it's possible. Considering that currency is a liability of the issuing nation and the current state of Iraq's economy, I have to say it is a remote possibility at best. But let's not give up hope. I've seen a lot of things I thought impossbile become reality. And for reasons I've explained in previous posts, I have tremendous confidenced in this investment.

For all the other doubting Tommy's, I'll refer you to a couple of posts I made using the economist's example how the foreign investors can be cashed out...I think it's in a post made c March or April, and possibly in "Forget the Lop Slop" or the one about the US Treasury. Sorry I don't have a link handy and don't remember the exact location. Anyway, that report may help you understand how it could would work.

I have not found anything to suggest that special provisions will be made under an Article XIV RV, but I acknowledge the possibility. But considering that currency is a liability of the issuing country, I'm extremely doubtful that Iraq's economy could handle a liability of that size at this time. Of course anything's possible (see my post c March-April with economists explanation how foreign investor cash in could be handled by their nation's CB. BTW, we are that foreign investor. And even though I don't believe Iraq is ready for an RV under Article VIII, I believe we're well within sight of the finish line. Have Faith and Have Hope and Hang on to your dinars. Some of you thought this would be a sprint to the finish line when in fact it has been a marathon. Well we're still running this race so pace yourself so your can cross the finish line. We're going to win this race.