Scooter: Good evening folks,
Scooter: I hope all is well and thank you for being here tonight!
Scooter: As we did two weeks ago, I am going to lay out some topics and links and then discuss several points related to that topic. At the end, I will take some questions and hand the ball over to my good friend Brietling to answer —- LOL LOL –
Scooter: Brietling — really — I am
Scooter: kidding that is
Scooter: ok ok — Here we go
Scooter: It’s a very exciting time for our investment and tonight I would like to explain some of the reasons.
Scooter: Also, when going through this, please remember the pace and occurrence of good news regarding Iraq and the economy nine months ago versus what’s happening right now.
Scooter: With that said, let’s get started with tonight’s topics – there’s only two!
Scooter: But the second one is in many tiny pieces – LOL LOL
Scooter: So,
Scooter: 1. 2011 Budget – Table of Increases VS. 2010 Table of Increases
Scooter: Here’s the link to the photobucket of images
Scooter: 2. Calendar of Events until July 1, 2011
Scooter: So onto to the 2011 Table of Increases
Scooter: Here’s the link
Scooter: Now, to begin, we need to understand the significance of these recently published spreadsheets
Scooter: One, they hold the keys to all the cards — from 2006 Iraq has managed essentially two sets of books
Scooter: sorry – manually typing this part
Scooter: now these spreadsheets have all the details on a departmental level, ministerial level, and executive level
Scooter: but what they show with the table of increases — is essentially the contours of the RV and how it will play out
Scooter: when Iraq makes a budget — they have to pass it like a normal law
Scooter: but they also have to show complete transparency
Scooter: With that said, they need to disclose those budget numbers to the world otherwise, they will never get one dime from the international community
Scooter: so with that said — since 2009 I have been following these books and tracking the increases
Scooter: please remember — these are ratios based on budgetary increases — not a rate — there’s much more that goes into the rate
Scooter: so, in 2009, iraq’s overall rate came in at 1.13
Scooter: In 2010 — we saw the use of the Bahraini Dinar rate for the operational expenses
Scooter: moderate the nominal rate with the Bahraini Dinar rate and the budget came in and rated at 2.05
Scooter: This years numbers were a little different in that they went to a more nominal mode and didn’t release too many details
Scooter: until now — they needed to hold this information back because if they released this back when they were supposed to in December 2010
Scooter: The speculators would have Illiquidated the country before the currency had a chance — well — maybe not that bad
Scooter: but it would have been serious
Scooter: so — 2011 — the emphasis was on the Investment portion of the budget
Scooter: but when you review those images — you’ll see the ratios fluctuate between the bottom 1.16
Scooter: and some absurd out of whack number in the 90′s — as I said these are ratios to determine the end
Scooter: Now the 90′s is exaggeration — but I think you get the picture.
Scooter: what’s interesting about this budget is what they are doing with hard durable goods
Scooter: The rates are in a narrow range between $3.39 to 3. 55
Scooter: Yet — we see Salaries at the normal 1.16 — 1.40 range
Scooter: Overall — there were no surprises and the grand total rate ends up at $1.27
Scooter: We’ll have more analysis on that coming in the future
Scooter: So, lets’s move onto the calendar of events — before I do that — remember 2010 came in at 2.05 and 2011 came in at 1.27
Scooter: the MEAN average for the two years comes out to $1.66
Scooter: And that doesn’t include the additional drainage funds — frozen assets — and the final numbers from the DFI
Scooter: so the reserves could be very SWEET when this currency opens to the market
Scooter: now to events
Scooter: June 15th – DFI Accounts are supposed to have been moved from the UN Account in New York to the US Treasury in Washington D.C.
Scooter: Remember — target end date is June 30th
Scooter: June 16th — Final report is delivered to the UNSC
Scooter: They need a couple of days to naw on that report — hahaha
Scooter: June 17th – FOREX Transactional and Leverage Changes are to be in effect. Going from 200 – 400 to 1 leverage down to 20 to 1.
Scooter: . Hmmmmmmm
Scooter: This has bigger impact than most realize because it changes everything about how to trade on the FOREX. There will be fewer, but longer transactions IMO because the leverage will now be greatly reduced from 200 to 1 down to 20 to 1.
Scooter: That should help control the volatility throughout the emerging markets from the businesses seeking quick, high yielding investments.
Scooter: June 19th – Islamic Banks (Arab Monetary Fund) get digitally connected to Iraq
Scooter: Here’s the link to the Arab Monetary Site — LINK
Scooter: Essentially, the Arab Monetary Fund is a Regional Arab Organisation, Founded in 1976, and has started operations in 1977. Member Countries (22) are: Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Yemen, Comoros.
Scooter: Do any of those countries look familiar — wonder who’s controlling the buttons — or at least some of them
Scooter: They will all be sharing the same transactional system but Iraq will now be participating
Scooter: June 22nd – United Nations Security Council Meet regarding Iraq
Scooter: Wednesday, June 22, 2011 ~ Security Council will discuss the pending issues between Kuwait and Iraq, mainly the missing persons and stolen property.
Scooter: If all goes well, should be the rubber stamp!!! It needs to because time is running out on the US Debt limit…… The Drama thickens and everything is going down to the wire….
Scooter: June 30th – Banking “Re-Boot” – or before the 30th — which is what I suspect….
Scooter: There’s a reason I bring this to chat tonight in such detail
Scooter: First — I want you to read some paragraphs from IMF CR 10/72 — this is a country report for 2010
Scooter: Here’s what the program looked like in early 2010 – IMF CR 10/72 March 2010
Scooter: The banking sector is in urgent need of reform to foster financial intermediation and
enable banks to contribute to the development of a strong private sector. With the help of the
World Bank and other international agencies, we have developed a banking sector reform
strategy.
Scooter: The first important step will be to finalize the restructuring of Rafidain and Rasheed
banks, based on their completed financial and operational audits. In this regard, the foreign
liabilities incurred by Rafidain and Rasheed on behalf of the previous regime and the large
suspense accounts will need be removed from these banks’ balance sheets. We aim to
Scooter: complete the restructuring of the balance sheets of Rafidain and Rasheed by June 30, 2010.
Scooter: Once their balance sheets are cleaned up and restructured, based on the decision already
made by the Economic Committee, the capital of Rafidain and Rasheed will be raised to
ID500 billion and ID400 billion, respectively.
Scooter: Those numbers have now changed to 1.5 Billion ID and 1.1 Billion ID
Scooter: these boys from Babylon really messed those books up —– !!! Do you think there was some corruption going on??????????
Scooter: here’s more
Scooter: We are also strengthening their internal audit capacity, developing legal arrangements within the banks,
and working towards providing missing data identified in the audit reports. The BSA has also completed the financial
and operational audits for the three specialized state-owned banks and has proposed an individual strategy for each
bank that was discussed by the Restructuring Oversight Committee (ROC).
Scooter: The three banks have set up a restructuring committee which includes BSA members to
implement the recommendations from the proposed strategy.
Scooter: 35. The authorities adopted a banking sector reform program in early 2009. This
program was developed with the support of the World Bank, in coordination with other
providers of technical assistance, including the Fund. A key element of the reform program is
the operational and financial restructuring of the two largest banks, Rafidain and Rasheed
Scooter: (MEFP ¶22). Operational and financial audits of these two banks were completed by an
independent auditor in 2008. Their operational restructuring envisages a new organizational
structure, including the establishment of business units (retail, corporate and investment
banking); risk management units; and governance, control and support units.
Scooter: The financial restructuring will first involve cleaning up the banks’ balance sheets and removing the legacy
of bad debts and suspense accounts and working out the fiscal implications. During a second
phase, the banks’ capital will be brought up to the required levels.
Scooter: Now, I bring this data into play because there’s been some that came with a strong argument that this action could not be related to the RV
Scooter: Hence,
Scooter: Present day — and please don’t get me wrong — that was a GREAT POST!!!
Scooter: but — when you look at the CBI Audit by Ernst and Young — They used the word ReValue three times — big no no
Scooter: and one of the locations was in reference to the Government Bank Re-Boots
Scooter: now — let’s take a look at 2011 CR 10/73
Scooter: Here’s some verbage from the latest report 10/73 — 2011
Scooter: 12. Financial intermediation is at a very low level in Iraq. A functioning banking sector is
essential for the development of a strong private sector. We have begun to embark on our
banking sector reform strategy:
Scooter: A critical step will be to complete the financial restructuring of the two largest state owned
banks, Rafidain and Rasheed, based on their completed financial and operational audits.
Scooter: OK — that’s cool — they’ve done the audits…
Scooter: In this regard, we formed a Bank Reconciliation Unit that comprises technical level staff from the banks, the CBI and the Ministry of Finance, and with the assistance of Ernst and Young (who were the agents of the Ministry of Finance in the external debt restructuring process) to:
Scooter: (i) deal with all legacy external Liabilities taking into account the government’s actions in the context of Iraq’s external debt restructuring
Scooter: First — please make note — when you change a Balance Sheet — Equity, Liabilities, and Assets change
Scooter: Essentially — when this occurs — the whole bank — or in this case the two government banks — get organically Revalued
Scooter: now — take the capitial infusion — on top of the debt restructuring — which was billions — and you have a completely, brand new bank !!!!
Scooter: Now, to let you all know, this was originally slated for June 30, 2010 — However they couldn’t track down two suspense accounts and the Terrorist attack on the cbi knocked out one of the three major transactional hubs.
chicosan: Scooter — what is the significance of the various rates – how do those numbers show us anything about the potential for the IQD?
Scooter: ok — if you have a nominal rate of 1170 — and you maintain those books at that rate — and then you look at the REAL or REER Equilibrium rate — there’s going to be a decrease or increase based on consumer pricing, inflation, etc…. — if you have a crawling peg like they do now — they’ll never be able to determine Inflation or when the curency gets stronger
Scooter: one last thing — they needed to save for this RV — since 2006 — they’ve been paying out the 16 – 17 regions at the REAL rate ….
chicosan: rate… ratio… how do these numbers relate to RV potential?
Scooter: Chico — if their CPI –Consumer Price Index was just modified based on the REAL Equilibrium RATE —- they would never be able to buy a loaf of bread staying at the nominal rate
Scooter: and — they changed that CPI back in March 2010 —
Scooter: so prices for food, gas, homes, everything is going to be based on the true rate —
Scooter: now if they are spending their budget at the REAL rate — and the consumers are spending at the REAL rate — What absolultely needs to occur to the currency?
Scooter: Yep — they need to bring the basis of goods and services in line with the PPP — purchasing power ….
lightworker: does the re-boot involve all the banks globally or just the Iraqi banks?
Scooter: No. Just the two gov. banks that do 80% approx. of all the banking
dreamzmadeforever: so based on all that info. you posted, isnt it kind of obvious they are set to RV very soon?
Scooter: I sure hope so — otherwise I need to be in the little padded room with no windows — yes indeed!
danielcat: Do you think that Warka Bank will still be a safe place to invest in post RV
Scooter: I’m not a professional Financial advisor — so I can’t make too many recommendations or provide advice — but I sure feel more comfortable with Citibank beside them
Scooter: ooops — who says that it isn’t already completed
cps: scooter you are just amazing in how you research things. thank you. IYO are good for june 30th
Scooter: I love June — but I’ve also told myself to wait until July 10th because July 11th is the first Paris club payment —
danielcat: Do you think the two major banks merger will take place before the 30th?
Scooter: I do — They have been under the Banking Sector Reform since April 2009
Scooter: Ok — last one — then I need to get home …
bubbie: can they wait till 2012 or later to rv!
Scooter: bubbie my friend — good to see you ….
Scooter: they could wait until 2012 — however — I would think with the backlog of investment opps and the forward derivatives which occured — that wouldn’t be the case
Scooter: In reality my friend — anything can occur
Scooter: ok folks — I very much appreciate the time — and I hope it was worthwhile –
Scooter: I hope you have a great evening and I am heading out of the office — Good Night all
tenmillion: Thank you Scooter!
Dinar Daddy Chat~
